Hiiraan Online

Constitutional Theory

German Philosopher Emmanuel Kant, is credited with formulating ideas that laid the foundation of the constitutional theory of the twentieth century. A distinctive feature of the Kantian theory is the emphasis on the supremacy of a country’s written constitution arguing that the exercise of government power must be constrained by the law and guided by a social contract as a regulative matter[2]. This doctrine further posits that the “power of the state must be limited in order to protect the citizens from the arbitrary exercise of authority.

While the theory supports the ideals for building a universal and permanent peaceful life, its basic premise underlines the necessity for the creation of the most just and fair organization of people’s life under the aegis of the law.” [3]

Based on the above theory, Somalia’s constitutional crisis will remain unresolved unless the recurrent abuse of power by the Executive as well as attempts to mutilate and manipulate the constitution to suit particular political interests at the expense of the national agenda is checked and the necessary safeguards put in place to protect the country’s constitutional gains.  As per the constitutional theory, “the necessity for the creation of the most just and fair organization of people’s life under the aegis of the law” is inherently lacking in Somalia while the quest to build a universal and permanent peaceful life is undermined by Villa Somalia’s rule by decree virtually usurping the powers of the judiciary and legislature and undercutting the independence of the public bureaucracy.

The ruling class and all concerned stakeholders must uphold the doctrine of the supremacy of the constitution as the fundamental and paramount law of the land to which the country shall duly be governed. Under this doctrine, if a newly enacted law or contract violates any provisions in the constitution whether in part or whole and whether promulgated by legislative or executive powers, such an enactment shall be deemed as null and void and without any effect or force.

Constitutional actors and office holders must adhere to and advance the principles and practices that underpin the constitutional order while conforming to established norms for resolving contested constitutional matters.

Conflict Theory

Somalia is a country embroiled in a protracted conflict that has overtime, unleashed the dark forces of clannism, warlordism, terrorism and state violence. At the conceptual level, conflict theories assume that all societies have structural power divisions and resource inequalities that lead to groups having conflicting interests. While Karl Marx emphasized class conflict (the bourgeoisie vs. proletariat) over economic resources, Max Weber suggested that conflict and inequality can be caused by power and status independently of class structures.[4]

The Marxist definition technically applies to industrialized countries where society is organized along two major classes, the bourgeoisie, erstwhile regarded as the owners of means of production and the proletariat, the exploited working class whose labour is the primary source of capital accumulation, wealth and profit for the ruling class. Some conflict analysts argue that the Weberian premise that explores factors beyond class can better explain the myriads of conflicts in non-industrialized countries, Somalia included.

Scholars like Alex De Waal have rejected the notion that Somalia has fractured along clan lines, because of the inherent incapacity of the clan system of politics to provide the basis for a modern state. De Waal argues that even in a country without a functioning government and formal economy, control over productive resources and the means of trade are the core to the political economy[5].

He highlights the nature of the resource-driven Somali conflict that is rooted in riverine agricultural land, pastureland, remittances from overseas workers and the resources that can be captured and dispensed by a sovereign state, including foreign aid and currency (“sovereign rents”). Further, De Waal has developed a class analysis of the origins and development of the crisis, locating it in “the growth of state-mediated capitalist relations in both agriculture and pastoralism, and the key role that control of the state apparatus played in allowing capital accumulation among certain sections of the mercantile class in the 1980’s[6].”

More importantly, De Waal points to the “legacy of disputed ownership of real estate and agricultural land as one key element in the enduring crisis”, adding “the expectation that a future government will be able to bestow the same benefits on its favoured businessmen is a key element in sharpening the ongoing struggle in southern Somalia.[7]”

In finding a lasting resolution, both the class and clan dynamics of the Somali conflict as well as the rent seeking by state and private sector actors must be addressed. As a step forward, peacebuilders and mediators need to acknowledge the often complex, inter-woven and deep-seated nature of the Somali conflict. The origins of the conflict must be understood in the context of resource scarcity, historical grievances, cultural prejudices, unequal power dynamics and external influences.  To facilitate an effective conflict resolution process all relevant techniques must be employed including mediation, negotiation, arbitration and dialogue.

Negotiation Theory

A negotiated settlement can help unlock the keys to peace and stability in Somalia. The negotiation theory has largely been defined as a field of psychological study that looks at decision-making processes within group settings. In analyzing conflicts, the Harvard Program on this field has identified “the cooperative approach as the surest path to understanding the other party and discovering new sources of value[8].”

The Ivy League Institution’s Program advances three negotiation theory principles that may be helpful in efforts to find negotiated solutions to Somalia’s protracted conflict. These include:

(a)   Focus on interests. Interest-based bargaining, which involves exploring the deeper interests underlying negotiators’ stated positions, can help parties identify potential trade-offs and opportunities for joint gains.

(b)   Anticipate and address sources of bias. Under the best of conditions, all parties must avoid predictable biases and other cognitive errors.

(c)   Reach agreement within and across parties. For every agreement, a host of other agreements are often needed. Many crises and negotiations often require multilateral bargaining[9].

The Current Situation

The ongoing constitutional deadlock poses the greatest danger to peace and security in Somalia. Rather than nearing its ultimate completion within established timelines, the provisional constitution has been arbitrarily altered through an illegal unilateral action by Villa Somalia that was unlawfully rubberstamped by a compromised Federal Parliament.

The security situation is deteriorating as the war against Al-Shabab in South-Central Somalia has suffered major setbacks. In a brazen attack, Al-Shabab militants have on March 4th raided the Somali Forces Base in Masagaway, Galgaduud, capturing an assortment of weapons including machine guns, assault rifles and an RPG projectile. Other reports indicate the Al-Qaeda linked terror group has taken control of Warciise Village close to Jowhar in Middle Shabelle.

A resurgent ISIS holed up in the Al-Miskad mountains in the Bari region recently staged deadly manoeuvres before it was swiftly degraded by the gallant Puntland Security Forces (PSF) acting without Federal support. Puntland’s campaign is now backed by US airstrikes as the mop up operations continues in the conflict zone.

Meanwhile the US Embassy in Mogadishu has issued a security alert for its citizens on March 4th warning of imminent terror attacks in multiple locations in Somalia  including Mogadishu’s Aden Adde international  Airport. On the same day, Turkish Airlines has reportedly halted direct flights to Mogadishu till March 12th.

The Jubaland-Federal Government standoff that morphed into deadly armed clashes late last year remains unresolved with no end in sight as troop mobilization in the Gedo region is still ongoing.

Brokered by Turkey, Somalia entered what was termed by some Somali opposition leaders as ‘dubious security agreements’ with Ethiopia that pose an existential threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the beleaguered nation further destabilizing the peace across the Horn of Africa region.

The country is teetering on the brink as the unilaterally imposed impractical one-man-one-vote campaign by the Federal government is threatening a parallel process and a potential direct military confrontation between the Feds and oppositional forces.

Rampant corruption continues to plague badly mismanaged government institutions, a fact openly admitted by the Somali Prime Minster in a recent address to the public. Yet again, Somalia has ranked bottom in the Annual Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index.

The humanitarian situation in Somalia is worsening as drought, conflict, and soaring food prices push millions toward extreme hunger, UN agencies in Somalia OCHA, FAO, WFP and UNICEF have warned.

Recommendations

In conferring urgent and immediate solutions to Somalia’s political deadlock and security woes, Somali stakeholders and international partners should proceed with the following recommendations.

Citizen Diplomacy – Track II Talks

The field of citizen diplomacy, also known as Track-II talks, has taken an important role in conflict resolution mechanisms around the world. In the Middle East and elsewhere, Track-II Talks have helped build bridges among communities torn by war and factionalism.

Due to failure or shortcomings of key Track-I (official diplomacy) talks, peace activists, conflict resolution experts, peace-builders and communities in general would increasingly rely on Track-II Talks in attempts to resolve protracted conflicts around the world. Typically, Track II Talks are not stand alone endeavors as they are designed to complement Track-I Talks (Official Diplomacy).

In Somalia, the primary actors in citizen diplomacy will ideally include peace activists, scholars, journalists, former statesmen and military officials, elder statesmen and other notable personalities representing various non-state sectors in the wider society committed to resolving conflicts within their states or communities or nationally. As this field has not taken root in Somalia, there is an urgent need to build a network of citizen diplomats in Somalia that can play a prominent role in resolving the conflict at Track II level.

Role of Civil Society

Having largely sat at the fence, Somalia’s civil society that brings together non-governmental organizations (NGOs), community groups, and grassroots organizations should take a pro-active role by working tirelessly to promote peace, fight against terrorism through popular education, public awareness campaigns, and demand an end to endemic state corruption  Acting as a counter weight to the state, the civil society must mobilize to promote peace, justice and equality and defend the spirit and letter of the constitution.

Political Opposition

The power and influence of oppositional forces cannot be underestimated. In Somalia, the political opposition must speak with one voice to challenge the state. The opposition must remain loyal to the country and the constitution even as they oppose the governing party.

While it is easier for the state to scuttle a divided opposition, a united front can present a formidable challenge that can force the hand of the ruling party. Like in other African countries, Somalia’s opposition must recognize that they have an important role to play to effect change and help chart a new path for the country. Under a united front, the opposition must come with a clear program and draft a political roadmap in collaboration with civil society actors and the progressive elements of the state to rescue Somalia and hold the Federal government accountable.

Elder Statesmanship

With the support of regional bodies, Somalis should identify and deploy a number of elder statesmen who can bring forth their wisdom and experience to intervene in times of crisis to help political and armed actors navigate volatile terrains and political landmines and set the stage for negotiations and peaceful settlement of conflicts. In addition to peace and stability, elder statesmen can champion transitional justice, reconciliation and human rights.

Elder statesmen are usually former Presidents or Prime Ministers. Due to their authority, respect and high status in society, elder statesmen wield much power and authority that can be instrumental in ending Somalia’s political stalemate and security dilemma. Some of the best-known elder statesmen that helped resolve difficult conflicts in Africa include the late Nelson Mandela (Madiba), Quett Masire (Botswana), Julius Nyerere (Tanzania), while living elder statesmen include Joaquim Chissano (Mozambique), and Olusegun Obasanjo (Nigeria). Elder statesmen are usually appointed by regional or sub-regional bodies like the AU or EAC etc. No elder stateman has ever been tasked with addressing Somalia’s intractable conflict. It is time to bring onboard a group of respected, impartial Somali elder statesmen or other African elder statesmen to bring back sanity to the political process.

International Community

Somalia’s main international partner, the EU, is believed to be pondering the possibility to bring Somalis to the reconciliation table. The Swedish Ambassador to Somalia Joachim Waern recently floated the idea of EU hosting a political reconciliation conference in Somalia.

Somalis must take advantage of the EU’s good offices to reconcile and unite for the sake of the country and its people. In the meantime, the UN, AU and EU should exert political pressure on Villa Somalia to change course, return to the legitimate and inclusive constitutional review process, abandon the tailored one-man-one-person vote electoral system in favor of indirect elections as well as end hostilities directed at Jubaland and Puntland States. Additionally, international partners should provide ample resources to strengthen the Somali civil society through capacity building and training and other relevant programs.

To prevent a return to the 2021 armed confrontation in the Somali capital, the international community must urge the Somali President to come up with a united National Consultative Council (NCC), inclusive electoral roadmap and a political settlement to all crisis points. While the current one person one vote electoral model can be a recipe for disaster, the International Community should be cognizant of the fact that the indirect elections thus far, have worked so well for Somalia and that any future electoral process can inclusively be adopted by the next government.

Conclusion

Somalia’s intractable political upheavals need urgent political and diplomatic interventions through a Somali-owned process, led by an elder statesman and backed by the international community that can steer the country out of the current stalemate. Such an initiative should be aimed at rebuilding public trust in government and avert the descend to chaos. It should address the constitutional limits to executive power, federal-state tensions, anti-corruption, good governance, the unfolding humanitarian crisis and avenues for civil society engagement. Further, Somali stakeholders must agitate for an inclusive political and electoral processes and call for an agenda for peace, unity and national reconciliation.

SOURCES

[1] NPR: https://www.npr.org/2025/02/11/1230674436/are-we-in-a-constitutional-crisis

[2][2]  Immanuel Kant, History of Political Philosophy, edited by Leo Strauss and Joseph Cropsey, University of Chicago Press, Chicago and London, 1987

[3] ibid

[4] What is Conflict Theory: https://www.simplypsychology.org/conflict-theory.html

[5] Alex De Waal: Class and Power in a Stateless Somalia: https://items.ssrc.org/crisis-in-the-horn-of-africa/class-and-power-in-a-stateless-somalia/

[6] ibid

[7] ibid

[8] Harvard: The Program on Negotiation: https://www.pon.harvard.edu/tag/negotiation-theory/

[9] ibid